Archive for December, 2009

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Secrets of Entrepreneurship

December 26, 2009

Entrepreneurship is often a difficult undertaking, being an entrepreneur is somethink could not be achieved from learning..its somethink beyond that. This is the series of best videos i have seen in this year from a great presenter.








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How CSE will reflect, if Gen.Fonseka becomes president elected

December 14, 2009

Almost few weeks ahead to the presidential election, I am eagerly waiting to see results of the toughest heavy weight battle I have ever seen. Thinks are so dramatic and subject to huge fluctuations. Every one thought Mahinda could remain as president for at least next ten years after he declared the end of war in a grand manner just 6 months before. But, we as people of Sri lanka, who again wanted to prove that we forget thinks so easily and open for changes at any moment.

At this energetic moment of the country, its worth to analyze how the economy will changes or reflects to the changes in the political agenda. We have been asked to accept the rich picture that we are growing and leading as a prosperous nation. But the actual fact is, the end of the armed conflict has inevitably shifted attention to reconstruction efforts. These would provide further growth momentum, at least in the next year or two. But thereafter to continue this momentum we should have policies and procedures. This growing trend is definitely not because of the economic policies and visionary implementation (nothing so called) of current government.

CSE has shown an unexpected growth of more than 100% within the last 5 to 7 months and been rated as the 2nd successful stock exchange in the world. These changes caused due to the recovery from the global financial crises and the end of war. Influence of the both factors sourced bulk change. That also been claimed as due to the dedicated commitment to growth by the government and central bank. But last two months CSE showed a mixed bucket of up and downs without any major break through.

In my believe, the activities of CSE is now purely responsive to political factors. None other factor could not have a major influence at this point of time. There is always a hope that economy will become strong if UNP is in power. So this is the time for hopes and believes. Investors and traders are making their decisions with political view point. Foreign investors are waiting for a proper settle down in political arena of Sri lanka. Therefore this weak momentum of CSE will continue for next two three weeks up to Jan 10.

There after people may be at a clear position to judge who’s likely to outperform. Based on those judgment investment and stocking will take place. If Gen.Fonseka becomes strong, more and more stocking would take place and that would boost the indexes to blink in green before election. But if he becomes president elected the seen thereafter will become more critical than as it is now. Parliamentary elections and political turnarounds will hugely influence the stake of the CSE there after. But despite those effect, I would predict ASPI will jump at least 300 points after week of election if General becomes president elected.

If Mahinda managed to retain the power for the next X no of years, then there would be a downturn in market condition but it would not be a huge flop. Because the thinks will become stable if he retain the power. Therefore, the negative result of the hopes of CSE investors would turnaround the ASPI to remain red for two three weeks after the election. But in my prediction, the down would be some think between 100 to 150 point on a slow phase.

Therefore my equation
100 = 120 (If Gen.Fonseka becomes)
100 = 90 (IF mahinda elected)

So, in overall in terms of CSE is concerned, the colors become green if Gen.Fonseka becomes the president elected and becomes red if MR retains the power of the nation. so,energitic investors again a time to take risk…world is widely open with opportunities.

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